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Material Gains

5G has great potential, but brings power challenges at the infrastructure and board levels.

5G network capacity is predicted to increase as much as 1000-fold by 2030. That's a stunning increase that can be attributed to effects such as our digital lifestyles and digital business transformation. Clearly, our dependence on online services that are available anytime, anywhere and at full speed shows no sign of abating. The effect on global energy demand could be even more stunning. The information & communications technology (ICT) industry currently consumes about 4% of the world's electricity, and this could increase to an amazing 20% with the growth of 5G networks. In absolute terms, that's equivalent to 150 quadrillion BTU per year.

Of course, 5G is huge, in scope as well as deployment. It covers low frequency bands, up to about 1GHz, although the main benefits of 5G are its ability to carry richer services that by their nature require faster data rates. These will push the limits of Frequency Range 1 (FR1) as defined by 5G standards, up to 6GHz in the FR1 range, and even higher in FR2 that extends into the millimeter-wave bands at 60-70GHz and even beyond. While services in the FR1 bands can support data rates of about 1-2Gbit/s, the higher bands are needed to support multi-gigabit data rates and latency of less than a few milliseconds.

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Connecting the world will require a better energy solution.

The early stages of the IoT "hype curve" saw some wild predictions for the number of devices that would be deployed. They're not looking so wild now, with 15 billion devices in 2020 and 29 billion expected by 2030. About 60% of these will be consumer devices, the remainder industrial, or IIoT, devices including smart meters and sensors for monitoring automation equipment, transportation infrastructures, and buildings like offices and factories.

Knowing that IPv6's 128-bit address space would permit more than 100 IP addresses for each atom on the surface of the earth, we can see that the IoT could theoretically grow well beyond even the most ambitious predictions.

While we can solve many problems by adding more of these devices, we are creating another at the same time. Each one needs a source of energy to operate and the fact that many of them will be deployed in mobile or remote locations means a battery is the most obvious power source. Already, the US alone throws away about 3 billion batteries every year and our IoT habit could add many extra tons of hazardous waste. But there are some exciting alternatives.

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Durability in the heavens can lead to sustainability on Earth.

We are increasingly reliant on satellite-borne services, as evidenced by the huge increase in launches in the past few years. The United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) has recorded over 5,500 launches between 2020 and 2022 in its Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space. This contrasts with typically 100 to 200 per year from the early 1960s until 2016.

The vast majority of satellites in operation today support communication applications such as Internet services. Of the 6,718 operational satellites at the start of 2023, 4,823 are communication satellites. While their number has increased more than 50% since 2022, there are also over 1,200 Earth observation satellites, up by more than 13%. Others are used for technical development, navigation and positioning, and space observation.

We need the services these space vehicles provide. The Starlink constellation, delivering high-speed Internet services, operates in a low earth orbit at an altitude of about 550km. It can boast much lower latency than typical Internet satellites in higher, geostationary orbits needed to support streaming services and video calls. This enables high-quality services to reach areas where installing ground-based Internet infrastructure is not cost-effective or practicable.

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Generative AI could transform product design, but raises questions about creative ownership.

The recent ousting and subsequent rehabilitation of OpenAI's CEO added some theater to the debate and buzz around artificial intelligence. AI, it seems, is everywhere and in everything from our smartwatches and phones to automobiles, data centers and factories.

With the explosion in generative AI like OpenAI's ChatGPT, it's also taking on creative roles that we might have assumed would remain the preserve of human intellect. For a while now, it has been possible to generate realistic images of human faces – not copies but unique individuals that never existed except inside a computer. Also, in 2023, the fashion brand Levi's became one of the first companies to suggest it would use AI-generated clothing models. These are expected to improve the shopping experience for customers by helping them assess clothes on likenesses that have a similar body shape and size to their own. Of course, it's also likely to help brands cut marketing and merchandising costs.

Let's set aside the prospects for the first AI catwalk model, or photographer, or bestselling novelist, and consider activities at the border between engineering creativity and design automation.

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AI factories could be the next step for smart manufacturing.

Joined-up thinking is a concept that can deliver a multitude of benefits. Where there are many differing interests to satisfy, bringing together ideas and coordinating actions in a holistic approach can lead to a better outcome for all. Not the least, it can reduce duplication of efforts and resources, making processes more streamlined and cost-effective.

In practice, joined-up thinking is often difficult to achieve. Institutional barriers, differing priorities among stakeholders, and the sheer number and diversity of variables to evaluate and manage can conspire to thwart the best intentions.

Manufacturing is a complex sequence of events that demands substantial joined-up thinking simply to make it happen and see a result coming off the production line. Increasingly, however, this is not enough in the modern world. Numerous related factors must be considered, especially the environmental impact of our activities. Smart manufacturing has enabled us to address some of these issues, connecting the factory and IT domains and bringing manufacturing data into enterprise systems to enhance planning and historical analysis for continuous improvement. This is joined-up thinking 2.0, if you like.

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While the 5G era continues to take hold, materials science must advance for us to move to the next stage.

It's part of the human condition to never be satisfied. We are always looking forward to what comes next, and this tendency is starkly evident in our attitudes toward technology. As our daily lives have become substantially enabled, empowered, and – many would probably agree – enhanced by the technology in our pockets, in our cars, and in our homes and offices, we have become increasingly demanding of more and better. More features and functions, more sophistication, faster responses, less waiting.

Our attitudes toward mobile services illustrate the point. No sooner had 5G networks started rolling out than the focus shifted to 6G and the exciting new opportunities it could bring. But is this a harsh truth about our nature, or simply the reality of a massive scientific and engineering challenge? The mobile industry has established a rhythm that introduces a new generation about once every 10 years: 3G arrived around 2000, 4G-LTE in 2010, and 5G rollouts based on Release 15 of the 3GPP specification began around 2020. 5G evolution has continued, with non-standalone deployments giving way to standalone 5G core and further enhancements in 3GPP Release 16 and 17 to support industrial IoT (IIoT) applications. Release 18 now paves the way for 5G Advanced, which will offer energy savings and greater spectral efficiency, leverage AI to improve network performance, and, of course, enable additional new services and enhanced capabilities.

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