SCOTTSDALE, AZ – The correlation coefficient between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth over the past decade was 0.85 (0.96 excluding the memory market in 2017 and 2018), a strong figure given a perfect positive correlation is 1.0, says IC Insights.
In the three decades prior, the correlation coefficient ranged from a relatively weak 0.63 in the early 2000s to a negative correlation of -0.10 in the 1990s, the research firm says.
IC Insights believes the increasing number of mergers and acquisitions, leading to fewer major IC manufacturers and suppliers, is one of major changes in the supply base that illustrates the maturing of the industry and has helped foster a closer correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth.
Another reason for a better correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth is the continued movement to a more consumer-driven IC market.
IC Insights believes 20 years ago, about 60% of the IC market was driven by business applications and 40% by consumer applications, with those percentages reversed today. As a result, with a more consumer-oriented environment driving electronic system sales, and in turn IC market growth, the health of the worldwide economy is increasingly important in gauging IC market trends.