SAN JOSE - The coming transition to nano-scale semiconductor devices means that leadership in information technology is up for grabs, warned the Semiconductor Industry Association.

At a news conference in Washington, D.C., this month, chief executives of U.S. semiconductor makers and a leading economist stressed the importance of continued progress and leadership in semiconductor technology. The industry is observing the 40th anniversary of Moore's Law - an observation made in 1965 by industry pioneer Gordon Moore that the number of components on a computer chip was doubling approximately every 12 months with a commensurate reduction in costs. Following the vision of Moore's Law, the U.S. semiconductor industry has led the worldwide industry, contributing key innovations that have helped drive America's economic growth.

Speaking at the news conference were Steve Appleton, chief executive of Micron Technology and 2005 chairman of the SIA; Craig Barrett, chief executive of Intel; Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University; and George Scalise, president of the SIA. The industry executives noted that four decades of continuous advances in microchip technology have led to creation of entirely new industries, including personal computers, the Internet, and cellular telephones, while enabling major advances in biotechnology, medicine, and environmental protection.Jorgenson discussed the contributions semiconductors have made to economic growth and productivity gains during the past decade.

SIA called for stepped up support for basic research in the physical sciences to assure continued U.S. technology leadership. Experts believe current semiconductor technology could run up against physical, technological and economic limits around 2020.

"U.S. leadership in technology is under assault," said Barrett. "The challenge we face is global in nature and broader in scope than any we have faced in the past. The initial step in responding to this challenge is that America must decide to compete. If we don't compete and win, there will be very serious consequences for our standard of living and national security in the future."

Barrett said that industry scientists believe current CMOS scaling to support Moore's Law can remain in effect for at least another 10 to 15 years. When the smallest features on a chip shrink to less than 10 nanometers - 10 one-billionths of a meter - current chipmaking technology will reach its ultimate limits. To keep Moore's Law alive, the industry will have to leave Newtonian physics behind and transition to the realm of quantum physics - the era of nanotechnology.

"U.S. leadership in the nanoelectronics era is not guaranteed," noted Barrett. "It will take a massive, coordinated U.S. research effort involving academia, industry, and state and federal governments to ensure that America continues to be the world leader in information technology."

Semiconductor technology vital to U.S. economy

Sustaining continuous advances in semiconductor technology is vital to sustaining improved U.S. economic performance, according to one of the nation's leading economists, Professor Dale Jorgenson. "The mantra of the ‘new economy' - faster, better, cheaper - characterizes the speed of technological change and product improvement in semiconductors, the key enabling technology," said Jorgenson. "Development and deployment of information technology is the foundation of the American growth resurgence that has occurred since 1995."

"The economics of information technology begins with the precipitous and continuing fall in semiconductor prices," Jorgenson continued. "The rapid price decline has been transmitted to the prices of a range of products that rely heavily on this technology, like computers and telecommunications equipment." Jorgenson noted that swiftly falling prices for information technology equipment have provided powerful economic incentives for rapid diffusion of information technology, which in turn has led to accelerated economic growth and strong increases in productivity.

"The four IT-producing industries - semiconductors, computers, communications equipment, and software - are responsible for a quarter of the growth resurgence, but only 3% of U.S. gross domestic product," said Jorgenson. "Obviously, the impact of the IT-producing industries is far out of proportion to their relatively small size."

SIA chairman Steve Appleton called for a concerted national effort to increase the resources devoted to research and development in the physical sciences. "Our current efforts are inadequate," said Appleton. "Federal funding for R&D as a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product has been almost cut in half over the past 20 years. We must return to the investment levels of the mid-1980s in order to compete for leadership."

SIA leaders will be calling on legislative and executive branch leaders to support increasing research budgets for the physical sciences in the National Science Foundation, the National Institute for Standards and Technology, and the Department of Defense. Specifically, the SIA is calling for:

- Increases of 7% per year in the research budget of the NSF for 10 years, doubling the research budget over that period;

- An appropriation of $20 million to match the semiconductor industry's support for the Focus Center Research Program, which supports pre-competitive research on microelectronics technology at 30 universities to ensure continued U.S. leadership throughout the remaining years of the CMOS era;

- An increase of $20 million to enhance the nanomanufacturing and nanometrology research capabilities of NIST; and

- An increase in funding for the Math and Science Partnership program of the No Child Left Behind act.

"U.S. leadership in technology is not inevitable," said Appleton. "Leadership in information technology is a cornerstone of our national strategy for economic growth, an improving standard of living, and national security. The actions we take today to ensure continued U.S. leadership will determine the quality of life enjoyed by our children and grandchildren," Appleton said.

ARLINGTON, VA -- Nearly half of all consumers plan to make their next television purchase a high-definition television set, according to a consumer survey released by the Consumer Electronics Association today. The survey results reinforce CEA's market research projection that total digital television unit shipments will surpass analog television sales for the first time in 2005, based on the "digital tuner mandate" issued by the FCC. The first time that dollar sales of digital television surpassed analog television was in 2003.

The study was administered via telephone to a random sample of 1,009 U.S. adults between Feb. 25 and March 1. The margin of sampling error for aggregate results is +/-3.1%.

"HDTV is here to stay," CEA president and CEO Gary Shapiro said of the survey findings. "Nearly all consumers are now aware of HDTV and more consumers than ever intend to make their next TV an HDTV. The consumer acceptance 'obstacle' is no more. Consumers want HDTV now more than ever; it is now up to the content creators and distributors to deliver it."

According to the survey results, awareness of DTV terminology has sky-rocketed in the past 18 months. Nine out of 10 adults are now aware of at least one term used to refer to high-definition television, such as "digital television" or "HDTV." Seventy-six percent of U.S. adults say they are familiar with details about the new TV sets. In addition, the percentage of adults who are not familiar has fallen by half, from 42%in 2003 to 22% today. Finally, 84% of consumers have seen an HDTV somewhere in the last 12 months, whether it was in a retail store or in their own home.

"Not only are consumers becoming more familiar with the digital television technology, they are also accepting of the digital television transition," said CEA director of market research Sean Wargo. "In fact, 53% say they feel positive about the transition, up slightly from 51% in 2003."

CEA also surveyed consumers' reaction to the eventual analog cut-off. When consumers who receive television signals, in part or in whole, via antenna on their primary TV were asked what they would do if they could no longer receive these signals with the antenna they currently use, 52% (from 46% in 2003) said they might buy a digital to analog set-top box converter and 66% (from 57% in 2003) said they might subscribe to a cable or satellite service. Among those homes that receive television signals only via antenna (12% of homes, according to the survey), the figures are 48% and 56%, respectively. Only 21% of antenna-only households are very likely to "do nothing."