Conflicting Views on IC Growth
EL SEGUNDO, CA -- A pair of research firms offered conflicting assessments of where the semiconductor industry is headed this year.
IHS iSuppli raised its growth forecast this year to 7.2%, reaching $325.9 billion, up from an April forecast of 7% growth.
“Thanks to the hardiness of the global electronics supply chain, the semiconductor industry is set for a year of solid growth in 2011,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president for semiconductor market intelligence at IHS. “Neither the Japan quake disaster nor weak economic conditions will derail the market’s expansion.”
Meanwhile, Gartner lowered its forecast to 5.1% from 6.2%, citing nominal double-bookings following the Japan disaster. The updated forecast puts the year-end sales at $315 billion.
While both firms observed the effects of Japan's March earthquake on the supply chain, and in particular, inventories, neither felt the impacts would be long-lasting.
Gartner said concerns over supplies of silicon wafers, crystal oscillators and certain materials have been overcome by other sourcing efforts. Gartner noted some cases of double-bookings as customers seek to ensure stock levels, a practice the firm said would ease in the third quarter.
Both firms noted strong demand for smartphones and tablets would drive the IC market, with Gartner predicting some two-thirds of semiconductor industry revenue growth through 2013 would come from those devices.
"[D]emand has been so strong for semiconductors in hot consumer items such as tablets and smart phones that IHS has raised its forecast slightly, IHS' Ford said.
IHS said growth would tail off in 2012 and 2013, rising 4.8% and 4% respectively, before accelerating to 8% and 7.5% through 2015. The forecast 2015 revenue of $411.8 billion equates to a compound annual growth rate of 6.3% between 2010 and 2015.
