Moreover, the recovery will be tepid, Henderson Ventures says, with a 4.6% uptick slated for 2010, followed by an 8.3% gain in 2011. The industry grew 0.2% in 2008, Henderson says.

The US, China and Russia will hog most of the gains, Henderson predicts.

The firm pointed to the ongoing financial crisis and subsequent cut in lending to corporations and consumers, amplified by wholesale spending reductions. “In effect, potential purchases of electronics equipment have been postponed,” Henderson wrote.

Large declines in unit deliveries of PCs and cellphones forecast for this year will be accompanied by big price cuts, thereby creating deep double-digit declines for the corresponding revenue streams. The firm says the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector could drop 50%, while entertainment and automotive electronics could see double-digit drops. Autos are expected to fall 9% this year, Henderson said.