HONG KONG – Worldwide consumer broadband connections will grow from 323 million connections in 2007 to 499 million in 2012, according to Gartner, Inc.

Worldwide consumer broadband connections penetrated 18% of households in 2007, and by 2012, households with a broadband connection will reach 25%, according to the research firm.

Five countries exceeded 60% broadband penetration into the home in 2007: Canada, Netherlands, Switzerland, South Korea and Hong Kong. This is expected to grow to 17 countries by 2012.

“Depending on the specific market conditions, availability of Internet-enabled devices and the continued impact of broadband on consumer lifestyles, we expect some markets will have a broadband ceiling at 80% penetration or greater,” said Amanda Sabia, principal research analyst at Gartner.

The high penetration rates seen in countries such as South Korea, Hong Kong and the Netherlands demonstrate what is possible under the right conditions. The small, denser countries, or countries with government-backed spending for broadband infrastructure, have an advantage, says Gartner. As a result, by 2012, these countries will have maintained their lead in broadband penetration rates.

The top three markets of South Korea, the Netherlands and Hong Kong are already heavily penetrated, so the change in rates is minimal compared with markets such as the US, Japan, Czech Republic, New Zealand and Australia. These markets will exhibit a swelling of broadband penetration by more than 20 percentage points, according to Gartner.

Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific will contribute the greatest increase (59 million) of consumer broadband connections worldwide. This market alone accounts for more than one-third of the five-year growth in consumer broadband connections. China alone will supply 25% of the overall growth in worldwide consumer broadband connections. The mature markets of Asia-Pacific and Japan will continue to have the highest broadband penetration of households. As this market is reaching saturation, the growth in the number of connections (18 million) is the lowest among the mature market segment.

“Broadband penetration will increase, especially in the geographically larger markets, as current broadband providers continue to deploy their services, as newer technologies (wireless broadband, such as WiMAX) attract subscribers, and as users experience firsthand how speed enhances their Internet sessions,” Sabia said.

When looking at household penetration for emerging versus mature markets, the overall growth is skewed, says the firm. Not only will the digital divide continue between the emerging and mature markets, it will widen by 13 percentage points.

“Newer ventures in these markets are primarily entertainment (such as Internet video content and games), IPTV and home networking, which will bring these devices and services into one integrated system within the home,” said Sabia.