NEVADA CITY, CA – During 2012, the total worldwide total cost of goods sold market for all wireless products (notebooks/ultrabooks, tablets, smartphones, traditional cellphones, and e-readers) is estimated to reach $348 billion in assembly value, or almost one-third the assembly value of all electronics products manufactured worldwide, says New Venture Research.

Total unit shipments are more than two billion annually, and tablets are now competitive with notebooks, and e-readers are competitive with smartphones. All products segments are starting to become competitive with each other, says the research firm.

It is projected that by 2017, the total assembly value of all wireless mobility products worldwide will achieve $559 billion, or a 9.9% CAGR.

Growth in demand for wireless mobility products is expected to evolve special product configurations ranging from high-end ultrabooks down to simple e-reader devices. End-user markets and vertical applications will differentiate product models along the lines of medical, automotive, aerospace and industrial applications.

This trend will drive down the average assembly value of each product by an estimated 1.2% CAGR over the next five years, with smartphones suffering the highest decline and notebooks experiencing positive growth because of the introduction of ultrabooks, says NVR.

E-readers hold the greatest potential for evolution of end-user applications when the education (textbook) market is realized, but are expected to open up over the forecast period for other reasons, i.e. when published content (magazines, catalogs, etc.) becomes digitally available. The e-reader is thus likely to evolve into a low-cost smartphone with limited capabilities, says the firm.

The wireless mobility product assembly market will be led by Apple, which is probably experiencing its peak in terms of brand recognition and revenue in 2012, according to NVR. 

Samsung will represent the biggest threat, as the company makes an equal or superior smartphone, tablet and possibly e-reader
product.

Google is launching its own hardware products (formerly Motorola) to capitalize on the search and advertising business.

A less than obvious powerhouse will be Amazon, which is attempting to seed the market with low-cost e-readers that can eventually be upgraded to be computational and interactive.

Suppliers that will face the most brutal competition include Acer, Dell, HP, Huawei, Lenovo, Nokia, RIM and ZTE. 

There may be some life for innovators like Barnes & Noble, HTC, LG, and Sony, but the field is already too crowded, says NVR.