SANTA CLARA, CA – Tablet PCs, such as Apple’s iPad, are expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years, says NPD DisplaySearch.

Tablet shipments will surpass notebook shipments in 2016. Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to more than 809 million units by 2017, says the firm.

While notebook PC shipments are expected to increase from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units by 2017, tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 121 million units to 416 million units in this period, for a compound annual growth rate of 28%.

A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66% of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60% range throughout the forecast period, says the research firm.

Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80 million units in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017.

Building on convenience-oriented features, including instant-on capability, long battery life and extreme portability, tablet PCs are expected to evolve in form factor and performance, making them a compelling alternative to notebook PCs. Tablet PCs are expected to incorporate multi-core processors, increasingly stable operating systems, growing app libraries and higher resolution displays.

In addition, notebook PCs are also evolving to meet the challenge from tablet PCs. Thinner form factors, higher resolution displays and touch functionality features are expected to increase. The notebook PC market will remain the largest part of the mobile PC market during the forecast period, accounting for 60% of mobile PC shipments in 2012, declining to 49% by 2017.